This is a sample of the letter that I send to all of my management clients on a quarterly basis.
Economic and Stock Market Update
U.S. GDP grew at 2.9% in the previous quarter and forward-looking estimates show U.S. GDP growth in the 2.5-3% range for 2018. Current valuations are rich but the following data points support this: “Full employment”, wage growth, tax reform, strong corporate earnings + buybacks and low interest rates (although rising). However, as we have said in previous letters there are large risks that were not priced into the market. Most notably a potential trade war. The market has begun to discount this risk. Other risks that could push the U.S. economy closer to a recession include: The Fed hiking too quickly, accelerating consumer debt levels, growing deficits and other geo political risks. We expect GDP growth to come in at the low end of consensus estimates.
There is an old story in investments concerning a potential client and a Wall Street broker anxious to impress him and win his business. The broker took the client to a nearby marina to show off his yacht and those of the other brokers who worked for his firm. The businessman looked down the line of beautiful craft and asked, “Where are the client’s yachts?” The broker didn’t have an answer. Read More
Summary: Investors should select an advisor that is obligated to act as a fiduciary. Investment advisors that act as a fiduciary have the fundamental obligation to act in the best interest of the client. It requires the advisor to put the client’s financial interest before their own. Read More
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