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Economic and Stock Market Update (1st Quarter 2018)

This is a sample of the letter that I send to all of my management clients on a quarterly basis.

Economic and Stock Market Update

U.S. GDP grew at 2.9% in the previous quarter and forward-looking estimates show U.S. GDP growth in the 2.5-3% range for 2018.  Current valuations are rich but the following data points support this: “Full employment”, wage growth, tax reform, strong corporate earnings + buybacks and low interest rates (although rising).  However, as we have said in previous letters there are large risks that were not priced into the market.  Most notably a potential trade war.  The market has begun to discount this risk. Other risks that could push the U.S. economy closer to a recession include:  The Fed hiking too quickly, accelerating consumer debt levels, growing deficits and other geo political risks.  We expect GDP growth to come in at the low end of consensus estimates.

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Economic and Stock Market Update (1st Quarter 2016)

This is a sample of the letter that I send to all of my management clients on a quarterly basis.

The US economy continues in its rut; a good quarter followed by several slow quarters. The slow growth continued in the fourth quarter with GDP growing at 1.4%. The consumer, aided by strong employment, continues to support the economy. Business spending, especially manufacturing, are holding it back. Manufacturing is very close to recession levels due to the strong dollar and falling exports. Mining and gas and oil production are in a deep recession. Other businesses are not confident enough to open the purse strings and business spending continues to lag.

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Deciphering Earnings Season: Beats & Misses

by Bret Hartman

Earnings season hits Wall Street four times a year. Publicly traded companies will release their quarterly financial statements at the end of each quarter: In the beginning of April, July, October and January. Read More

Stock Valuations: Fundamental Analysis vs. Technical Analysis

By Bret Hartman

There are several ways to evaluate a stock, two of which are fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis assumes that markets are efficient and that consumers behave rationally to various events that could impact a stock’s price. Read More

Evaluating Your 401K Options

by Bret Hartman

Good news! Your employer offers a 401K plan. But in order to fully benefit from your company’s plan, you need to allocate your portfolio to best fit your situation.

To begin the process you should ask yourself the following questions: Read More